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The Impact of mining sector on economic development in Botswana.
https://doi.org/10.20569/00003567
https://doi.org/10.20569/00003567d7f879f9-08fa-490e-b73b-0701a9c3b09d
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内容要旨及び審査結果要旨 (238.6 kB)
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本文 (846.6 kB)
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| Item type | 学位論文 / Thesis or Dissertation(1) | |||||
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| 公開日 | 2018-06-14 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | The Impact of mining sector on economic development in Botswana. | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06 | |||||
| 資源タイプ | doctoral thesis | |||||
| ID登録 | ||||||
| ID登録 | 10.20569/00003567 | |||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||
| 別タイトル | ||||||
| その他のタイトル | ボツワナの経済発展に対する鉱業部門のインパクト | |||||
| 作成者 |
KOITSIWE, KEGOMODITSWE
× KOITSIWE, KEGOMODITSWE |
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| 内容記述（抄録） | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | Mining have the potential to be an important source of income and driving force behind broader economic development. Mineral production generates income and foreign exchange (if exported), can stimulate local economies through the local purchase of inputs, and can be the basis for downstream processing and manufacturing industries. Governments receive tax revenues from mineral production, which are available to fund education, health care, roads, electric-power supplies, and other forms of infrastructure. Yet, for many years resource endowed economies had been grappled with the notion that the possession of natural resources could be a curse. The latest commodity price super-cycle has inspired many including governments of resource endowed economies to think constructively about how to use their mineral wealth to benefit their citizens. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of mining sector on economic development of Botswana for the purpose of contributing to the discussion on developing a diversified economy. Botswana’s mineral-led growth is under threat as the government expects mineral revenues to start decreasing in the next decade when opencast mining will be replaced by underground mining due to depletion. Moreover, the base metal industry is struggling due to low commodity prices and high production costs. Apart from the expected decline in mineral revenues, the country’s fiscal position has been adversely affected by the global economic crisis, a development that has led to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves, an increase in public debt and a cumulative budget deficit from 2009 to 2012. Therefore, there is a need to address fiscal policy and sectoral policies in recognition of mineral revenue decline. The first aim of this study was to empirically investigate the dynamic relationships between mineral revenues, government expenditure and economic growth in Botswana. Mineral revenues are the main source of financing government expenditures and imports of goods and services. Increasing mineral revenues over the years have boosted public expenditures on social and economic infrastructure. In this study, we examine whether the government spending has enhanced the pace of economic growth or not. In meeting the first objective, vector autoregression and granger causality methodologies were used and data for 1994 – 2012. Overall results suggest that mineral revenues remain the principal source for growth and the main channel which finance the government spending. Furthermore, the results reveal lack of causality and little interaction between government expenditure and economic growth. The second aim of this study was focused on examining the linkages between the mining and non-mining sectors. The results would show the level of economic dependency running from the mining sector to the non-mining (manufacturing and services) sectors and the extent to which different sectors benefitted from the mining export boom and vice-versa. Using vector autoregression and granger causality, the relationships between sectors were disentangled. The overall results showed that the mining sector has had a positive impact on other sectors in the economy. The empirical test results suggested that mining sector has been positively associated with growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. Services sector seems to have benefitted more from the mining sector than the manufacturing sector during 1976-2014. The direction of causality runs from mining to manufacturing and services, which implies that mining induces growth in both sectors and there is no causation from non-mining sectors to mining. The results indicate lack of backward linkages among the sectors, which is necessary for diversification to take place. Therefore the mining sector still is an enclave activity in the economy of Botswana. The third aim of this study was to examine the determinants of copper prices. There is quite broad consensus that market fundamentals (physical and demand) explain commodity price fluctuations, particularly in the medium and long term. Yet, following the recent price boom, some dissent has arisen about the role played by the financialization of commodities and particularly, financial speculation. This study develops an empirical model for the copper market, consisting in an ordinary least squares with variables including both market fundamentals and financial speculations. Since the variables impact probably changes over time, the 23 years studied are divided into four periods (1993-1997, 1997-2005, 2005-2008, and 2008-2016) separated by three structural breaks related to the Asian Financial Crisis, Chinese boom and financialization of commodity markets and financial crisis. The results indicate that financial speculation impact was significant only in 2005-2008, explaining the price increase in this period. Overall, the results indicate that not only fundamentals can explain copper price changes. The results support the conclusion that, for the purposes of modeling and most importantly forecasting, current models based only on the fundamentals cannot fully explain price dynamics which are shown to be, in general more complex than has been assumed. As the conclusion, our study indicates that beneficiation of minerals (diamonds) is necessary to ensure robust fiscal position of Botswana and also to sustain economic growth and development. Furthermore, rents from diamonds can be used to establish base metal beneficiation that could help diversify the economy beyond diamond dependency. |
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| 著者版フラグ | ||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||
| 書誌情報 | 発行日 2018-03-22 | |||||
| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | 秋田大学 | |||||
| 学位名 | ||||||
| 学位名 | 博士（工学） | |||||
| 学位授与機関 | ||||||
| 学位授与機関識別子Scheme | kakenhi | |||||
| 学位授与機関識別子 | 11401 | |||||
| 学位授与機関名 | 秋田大学 | |||||
| 学位授与年月日 | ||||||
| 学位授与年月日 | 2018-03-22 | |||||
| 学位授与番号 | ||||||
| 学位授与番号 | 甲第1258号 | |||||
