@article{oai:air.repo.nii.ac.jp:00002121,
 author = {西田, 眞 and 佐藤, 貴子 and 石沢, 千佳子 and NISHIDA, Makoto and SATO, Takako and ISHIZAWA, Chikako},
 issue = {3},
 journal = {日本ファジィ学会誌},
 month = {Jun},
 note = {気象に関する言い伝えは全国各地に多数存在し, 通常, 経験に基づいて利用されている.言い伝えに基づいた気象予測は言語的かつ曖昧に表現されていることもあり, 予測精度はこれまで科学的に解析されていなかった.本研究では, 「寒だめし」と呼ばれる経験に基づく地域的な長期気象予測における気温予測精度の検証を試みた結果を示す.具体的には, 言語的に表現された気温予測結果を数値データ化し, 一致率とスコア法を用いて定量的な検証を加えた.また, 気象庁が発表している3ヶ月予報の気温に関する言語的な表現を用い, 気温予測の検証を試みた.その結果, 5段階スコア法による「寒だめし」の年間平均の予測精度は約53%程度であり, 3ヶ月予報と同レベル程度の精度を有していることを確認した., Many pieces of tradition on weather predictions are seen all over Japan and they have customarily been utilized based on people's experience. The verbally expressed predictions based on the tradition are usually vague, and scientific analysis have not been attempted so far to the prediction accuracy of them. Results concerning the test of the temperature prediction accuracy are presented in this paper. The temperature prediction in a district is one of the constituents of long-term weather prediction based on an empirical "kan-dameshi" or "a prediction derived from cold season temperature variations". In actual procedure, numeric data which are the translations of the verbally expressed temperature predictions are used for the test by employing a coincidence rate and a score method. Another test concerning the temperature prediction is practiced as well with the verbally expressed every-three-months forecast announced by the Meteorological Agency. Our results over one year by using five-temperature-classes score method about "kan-dameshi" represented, on average, nearly 53% prediction accuracy, which is as same as the accuracy obtained from the Meteorological Agency data.},
 pages = {61--70},
 title = {言語的に表現された地域的な長期気温予測の精度検証},
 volume = {11},
 year = {1999}
}